Abstract
This study employs the ARIMA model to forecast hospital bed availability in China from 1994 to 2023, with a focus on predicting bed numbers for the subsequent five years (20242028). The analysis encompasses two principal phases: the first phase involves forecasting future bed numbers based on historical data, and the second phase evaluates the accuracy of these forecasts by comparing them with actual data from 2021 to 2023. Using the ARIMA(0,2,0) model, the study demonstrates a robust and reliable forecast, revealing a steady increase in hospital bed counts. The accuracy of the model's predictions is high, confirming its effectiveness for short-term forecasting and underscoring the importance of proactive healthcare infrastructure planning. Additionally, the study highlights potential areas for future research, including the integration of additional variables, exploration of alternative modeling approaches, extension of forecast horizons, and sensitivity analyses to enhance predictive precision. These contributions aim to assist healthcare planners and policymakers in addressing the evolving needs of China's healthcare system and ensuring adequate medical service provision.
Published Version
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