Forecasting incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China using ARIMA model

Qiyong Liu,Baofa Jiang,Xiaodong Liu,Weizhong Yang

doi:10.1186/1471-2334-11-218

Abstract

BackgroundChina is a country that is most seriously affected by hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) with 90% of HFRS cases reported globally. At present, HFRS is getting worse with increasing cases and natural foci in China. Therefore, there is an urgent need for monitoring and predicting HFRS incidence to make the control of HFRS more effective. In this study, we applied a stochastic autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with the objective of monitoring and short-term forecasting HFRS incidence in China.MethodsChinese HFRS data from 1975 to 2008 were used to fit ARIMA model. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Ljung-Box test were used to evaluate the constructed models. Subsequently, the fitted ARIMA model was applied to obtain the fitted HFRS incidence from 1978 to 2008 and contrast with corresponding observed values. To assess the validity of the proposed model, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) between the observed and fitted HFRS incidence (1978-2008) was calculated. Finally, the fitted ARIMA model was used to forecast the incidence of HFRS of the years 2009 to 2011. All analyses were performed using SAS9.1 with a significant level of p < 0.05.ResultsThe goodness-of-fit test of the optimum ARIMA (0,3,1) model showed non-significant autocorrelations in the residuals of the model (Ljung-Box Q statistic = 5.95,P = 0.3113). The fitted values made by ARIMA (0,3,1) model for years 1978-2008 closely followed the observed values for the same years, with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 12.20%. The forecast values from 2009 to 2011 were 0.69, 0.86, and 1.21per 100,000 population, respectively.ConclusionARIMA models applied to historical HFRS incidence data are an important tool for HFRS surveillance in China. This study shows that accurate forecasting of the HFRS incidence is possible using an ARIMA model. If predicted values from this study are accurate, China can expect a rise in HFRS incidence.

Highlights

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), or epidemic hemorrhagic fever (EHF) is an acute viral syndrome caused by infection with one of hantaviruses
In China, hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is caused mainly by 2 types of hantaviruses, Hantaan virus (HTNV) and Seoul virus (SEOV), each of which has coevolved with a distinct rodent host
Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, which take into account changing trends, periodic changes, and random disturbances in time series, are very useful in modeling the temporal dependence structure of a time series

Summary

Introduction

China is a country that is most seriously affected by hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) with 90% of HFRS cases reported globally. We applied a stochastic autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with the objective of monitoring and short-term forecasting HFRS incidence in China. In China, HFRS is caused mainly by 2 types of hantaviruses, Hantaan virus (HTNV) and Seoul virus (SEOV), each of which has coevolved with a distinct rodent host. Epidemic modeling and forecasting can be essential tools to prevent and control HFRS. The variation of HFRS incidence, which is influenced and constrained by diversified factors, is characterized by tendency and randomicity. These statistical tools are inappropriate for analyzing the randomicity of HFRS. This study aimed to develop a univariate time series model for the HFRS incidence; a stochastic ARIMA model, for short-term forecasting of HFRS incidence (per 100,000 population) in China

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