Abstract
The Corona virus known as COVID-19 was first present in Wuhan, China at this time has troubled many countries and its spread is very fast and wide. Data on daily confirmed COVID-19 cases were collected from the DKI Jakarta province between early May 2020 and late January 2021. The daily increase in confirmed COVID-19 cases has a percentage of the value of increase in total cases. In this study, modeling and analysis of forecasting the increment rate in daily number of new cases COVID-19 DKI Jakarta was carried out using the Seasonal-Trend Loess (STL) Decomposition and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models. STL Decomposition is a form of algorithm developed to help decompose a Time Series, and techniques considering seasonal and non-stationary observation. The results of the best forecasting accuracy are proven by STL-ARIMA, there are MAPE and MSE which only have an error value of 0.15. This proposed approach can be used for consideration for the DKI Jakarta government in making policies for handling COVID-19, as well as for the public to adhere to health protocols.
Highlights
Covid-19 reported in China in December 2019, less than one month, the disease has spread in various other provinces in China, and spreading fast to other countries: Thailand, Japan, and South Korea
According to the result of Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the optimal order of SARIMA model with the lowest AIC based on Equation 3, 257.794 is (0,1,2)(2,1,0)12
We run three scenarios of training and testing dataset, to evaluate the error performance and analyze the parameter estimation in Table III, and plot of increment rate the forecasting scenarios shown in Figure 4, 5, 6
Summary
Covid-19 reported in China in December 2019, less than one month, the disease has spread in various other provinces in China, and spreading fast to other countries: Thailand, Japan, and South Korea. On March 2, 2019, the first Covid-19 confirmed in Indonesia uncovered two Covid-19 cases in Depok City. The Covid-19 spreads throughout Indonesia, especially DKI Jakarta. These days, DKI Jakarta has become the number one province with the massive Covid-19 cases in Indonesia [1]. The significant increase of Covid-19 in a short period, affects to stability system especially the economic sector in DKI Jakarta which has a strongly notion to Indonesia's economy [2]. The government executes policies to overcome the Covid-19 increment rate with enactment of large-scale social restrictions as stated in the regulation under the Indonesia ministry of national health [2]
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