SARIMA Model for Malaria Admission Cases for Children Less Than Five Years in Kakamega County Referral Hospital

Patrick T Berengu ,Robert Muriungi Gitunga ,Kennedy L Nyongesa

doi:10.7176/mtm/9-7-06

Abstract

According to (MOH, 2016), malaria has become a killer disease to children in Kakamega County. Children less than five years are the most vulnerable to malaria. Lack of forecasting using available data on malaria indicators hinders the monitoring and control of the disease. This study therefore sought to formulate Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model for malaria admission cases for children less than five years in Kakamega County Referral Hospital. The objectives of the study were; to derive SARIMA model for forecasting malaria case admission for children less than five years and to use the derived SARIMA model to forecast malaria admission cases for children less than five years. Box Jenkins Methodology was used to derive SARIMA model. The appropriate model was SARIMA (0,2,2)(0,2,2)12. The study recommends this model to be used for planning and designing an effective control strategy for this category of children at the County level. Keywords: SARIMA model, Box Jenkins Methodology, Forecasting, Malaria admission cases. DOI : 10.7176/MTM/9-7-06 Publication date : July 31 st 2019

Highlights

Introduction background of the study has been discussed in terms of malaria burden as a whole and the challenges faced in order to reduce malaria cases especially for children less than five years
This study focuses on generating Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model for malaria admission cases for children less than five years
A time series is said to be stationary if its statistical properties such as mean, variance remain constant over time

Summary

Introduction

Background of the study has been discussed in terms of malaria burden as a whole and the challenges faced in order to reduce malaria cases especially for children less than five years. It highlights the statement of the problem and the study objectives. Malaria presents a major socio-economic challenge to African countries considering that Africa is the most affected region. This challenge cannot go unnoticed given that good health is a basic human need, and a fundamental human right and a prerequisite for economic growth UN(2015). Pregnant women and children are more vulnerable to malaria infection since it reduces a woman’s immunity making them more prone to infection and this puts the life of unborn baby at risk (WHO, 2016)

Objectives

Methods

Results