FORECASTING NPP PIPELINES RESIDUAL LIFE BASED ON EROSION-CORROSION WEAR RATE MEASUREMENT

Abstract

The article is devoted to solving issues related to the assessment and forecasting NPP pipelines residual life, taking into account the rate of erosion-corrosion wear. (ECW). The article investigates the theoretical issues that arise when carrying out probabilistic calculations when forecasting the residual life of pipelines of the supply network. The authors proposed the use of a probabilistic-physical approach to assess the real technical condition and forecast the residual life, in the absence of failures. As a probabilistic model, we use DM-distribution (diffusion monotonic) distribution. Its parameters have a physical interpretation – average rate of determining parameter change (validity criterion) and the variation coefficient of the generalized degradation process. The residual thickness of the pipeline wall is taken as the determining parameter, and it is assumed that when determining such a section of the pipeline, it is possible to measure it.