ON THE ISSUE OF PREDICTING THE REMAINING SERVICE LIFE OF NUCLEAR POWER PLANT ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT

Abstract

This article addresses the issues related to the assessment and prediction of residual life of power plant equipment, taking into account the wear rate of its main components. Theoretical aspects arising during probabilistic calculations for predicting the residual life of three-phase induction motors are investigated. The study assumes that the prediction of residual life is based on determining its minimum estimate through calculation. A comparison is made between the minimum estimate result and the normative permissible level of wear of the investigated objects. The authors propose using a probabilistic-physical approach to objectively assess the technical condition and predict the residual life of this technical equipment. Within this approach, a probabilistic model based on the application of the diffusion-monotonic distribution for failures is considered for assessing longevity. The parameters of the model used have a physical interpretation. The key parameters taken into account are the average rate of change of the determining parameter, namely the insulation absorption coefficient and its resistance, as well as the coefficients of variation of selected degradation processes, assuming the possibility of their measurement or the use of prior estimation for the variation coefficient of processes. The article presents criteria for assessing the residual life of the investigated objects, which allows reducing operational costs by increasing the maintenance intervals and establishing the actual service life of the motors.