Forecasting material flows of modern logistics centres of railway freight stations exemplifi ed by Xi’an (the People’s Republic of China)

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to create a more accurate material fl ow forecasting model of Xi’an freight railway station in China. The combined forecasting model is more validated for forecasting freight flows of regional logistics compared to three methods: grey forecasting, Markov chains, entropy weighting. Through the creation of the combined model, the grey forecasting method is combined with Markov chain correction, and the projected data is compared with the actual data to obtain higher accuracy of the forecasting model. A combined model using the grey forecasting method combined with Markov chain correction is created, with the forecast data compared with the actual data to obtain high accuracy of the forecasting model. The practical significance is that in the context of the present post-pandemic economic development, the logistics enterprises that do not operate in accordance with the modern logistics methods may be displaced by competitors. If the railway does not improve its logistics infrastructure, logistics equipment, railway logistics network platform, etc., it will lose out to other modes of transport. In order to meet the needs of logistics and improve the market competitiveness, the main indicator of a freight station is loading and logistics flow. Therefore, exact prediction of future changes in the logistics flow of a freight station can help to determine whether the station needs to be upgraded as a railway station or transformed into a certain type of a logistics centre.