Abstract
Fuel is an essential commodity in both the economy and society. Indonesian fuel demand continues to increase annually, whereas fuel production has decreased. Gasoline accounts for more than 50% of fuel consumption for transportation. A reliable gasoline product demand forecast is required to plan the gasoline supply. The objective of this study is to forecast the demand for total gasoline and its three components, which are gasoline 88, gasoline 90, and gasoline 92. This study compared the Holt–Winters additive model and autoregressive integrated moving average for the time-series data for the 2017–2019 period. Because the Holt–Winters additive model generates more accurate results, it was applied to predict the total demand for gasoline during 2020–2022. The results of the combination of the Holt–Winters model and a neural network to forecast gasoline 92 demand had lower errors than the individual Holt–Winters method. The forecast results show that total gasoline demand is forecasted to increase, but the components indicate a different trend. Gasoline 92 and gasoline 88 decreased, but gasoline 90 increased.Keywords: Forecasting, time series, gasoline demand, Holt-Winters, Neural NetworkJEL Classifications: Q4, Q47DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.9982
Highlights
The petroleum industry plays an essential role in the world economy, and disruptions in its supply chain have significant impacts on the economy and society (Lima et al, 2016)
R square is the squared correlation between the forecast variable Y and the estimated value Y
The results indicated that the Holt-Winters additive model is more accurate than the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model because it has lower mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE)
Summary
The petroleum industry plays an essential role in the world economy, and disruptions in its supply chain have significant impacts on the economy and society (Lima et al, 2016). Oil consumption in Indonesia has increased significantly, but oil production had been decreasing. Indonesia has become an importer of crude oil and refined oil products (Sa’ad, 2009). Among the factors that influence the escalation in petroleum demand, population and economic growth receive significant attention (Zhang et al, 2009). The country’s economic growth over the years has trended upward. Indonesia’s GDP was US$165 billion in 2000, increasing to US$1042 trillion in 2018 (World Bank, 2018). These statistics indicate a tendency for a widening gap between oil demand and domestic supply capabilities that requires attention
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