Gasoline and Travel Demand Models Using Time Series and Cross-Section Data from United States

Abstract

The price and income elasticities of highway gasoline and automobile travel demand are useful for forecasting gasoline tax revenues and highway investment needs and evaluating policies to reduce automobile use, improve fuel efficiency, or reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Gasoline and travel demand elasticities are calculated using 1950 to 1994 time series data for the United States and 1988 to 1992 pooled data for states of the United States. Gasoline demand was found to be price inelastic in the short run, but in the long run, it was found to be 20.7. Even in the United States, gasoline price has a significant impact on gasoline use. The response to price changes is divided among driving, fuel efficiency, and the size of the vehicle stock, although the latter is the smallest. The Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) program was found to be associated with an average 1 percent annual decline in per capita fuel consumption. The elasticity of driving with respect to fuel efficiency—the rebound effect—was f...