Forecast of planting vineyards with local grapevine varieties in the republic of Serbia using the ARIMA models

Abstract

Compared to the previous period, the vineyard area in the Republic of Serbia has decreased significantly. Although the planting of new vineyards is subsidized over a long period of time, not enough vineyards are planted to ensure self-sufficiency in domestic grapes, wine (wine products) and spirit drinks originating from grapes. This is especially case for vineyards with local grapevine varieties, which can be of great importance for the rural development and promotion. In this paper, utilized time series analysis, spe?cifically Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling was used to predict the dynamics of newly planted vineyard areas with all grapevine varieties and local grapevine varieties based on data from the previous 20 years (period from 2003 to 2022). The aim is to forecast the trends of newly planted vineyard areas, both for all grapevine varieties and vineyards with local grapevine varieties, for the period from 2023 to 2027. A time series refers to a structured sequence of observations. The structuring is frequently done in terms of time intervals. Forecasting time series data, or determining future trends, is one of the most crucial goals of time series analysis. Based on such analysis, it is possible to forecast the expansion of vineyard areas for the upcoming period. ARIMA models helped to determine five-year trends in data on newly planted vineyard areas. The forecast made in this paper showed that vineyard area of all grapevine varieties would be planted at an an?nual range of about 230 and 300 hectares over the next five years. The forecast for future annual planting for the same period (2023-2027) of vineyards with local grapevine varieties is in the range of only about 10 to 60 hectares. The obtained ARIMA forecast results, espe?cially for the forecasts for planting vineyards with local grapevine varieties, show that it is necessary to pay special attention to this problem and to initiate numerous measures and activities in order to increase the area of vineyards with local grapevine varieties in the Republic of Serbia.