Dynamics of change of climate conditions and extreme weather events in Serbia

Response of maize yield to climate change in Sichuan province, China

The genetic pool of valuable old ornamental cultivars and their in situ maintenance is threated by climate change. Meanwhile, ornamental plants like roses make up an important share of both gardens and urban green spaces, where they are particularly vulnerable to multi-stress growth conditions. The aim of this research was to evaluate the effect of changing climatic conditions on growth and flowering of 11 historic climber roses through long-term studies (2000–2017) conducted in Central Europe. The evaluation of plants consisted of assessment of frost damage and the timing of early phenological stages (starting of bud break, leaf unfolding), as well as gathering data on the beginning, fullness, and end of flowering and its abundance. Frost damage was not observed in any year only in ‘Mme Plantier’ and did not occur for any cultivar after the winter in the years 2007, 2008, and 2014. Only a little damage to one-year shoots was recorded after the winter in the years 2015–2017. Frost damage to ‘Alberic Barbier’, ‘Albertine’, ‘Chaplin’s Pink Climber’, ‘Orange Triumph clg’, and ‘Venusta Pendula’ led to pruning to ground level in every year excluding those listed above. Frost damage of once-blooming roses limited their flowering; however, the many-year datasets showed a trend for decreased frost damage and improved abundance of flowering, and these results can be interpreted as a response to the increase of average air temperature. The timing of bud breaking and leaf development in all climber roses was strictly correlated with average air temperature in the dormancy period. The reactions of climber roses to weather conditions confirmed the influence of climatic changes on ornamental crop plants in Central Europe, introducing the potential possibility for the wider application of climber roses, but without certainty of flowering every year.

As the backland of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the river source region is highly sensitive to changes in global climate. Air temperature estimation using remote sensing satellite provides a new way of conducting studies in the field of climate change study. A geographically weighted regression model was applied to estimate synchronic air temperature from 2001 to 2015 using Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometry (MODIS) data. The results were R2 = 0.913 and RMSE = 2.47°C, which confirmed the feasibility of the estimation. The spatial distribution and variation characteristics of the average annual and seasonal air temperature were analyzed. The findings are as follows: (1) the distribution of average annual air temperature has significant terrain characteristics. The reduction in average annual air temperature along the elevation of the region is 0.19°C/km, whereas the reduction in the average annual air temperature along the latitude is 0.04°C/degree. (2) The average annual air temperature increase in the region is 0.37°C/decade. The average air temperature increase could be arranged in the following decreasing order: Yangtze River Basin > Mekong River Basin > Nujiang River Basin > Yarlung Zangbo River Basin > Yellow River Basin. The fastest, namely, Yangtze River Basin, is 0.47°C/decade. (3) The average air temperature rise in spring, summer, and winter generally increases with higher altitude. The average annual air temperature in different types of lands following a decreasing order is as follows: wetland > construction land > bare land glacier > shrub grassland > arable land > forest land > water body and that of the fastest one, wetland, is 0.13°C/year.

Climate-smart agriculture and forestry: maintaining plant productivity in a changing world while minimizing production system effects on climate.

Radley Horton,1,a Daniel Bader,1,a Yochanan Kushnir,2 Christopher Little,3 Reginald Blake,4 and Cynthia Rosenzweig5 1Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, NY. 2Ocean and Climate Physics Department, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY. 3Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Lexington, MA. 4Physics Department, New York City College of Technology, CUNY, Brooklyn, NY. 5Climate Impacts Group, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies; Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY

Direct and indirect threats of climate change to the biodiversity of the city of Lviv are analyzed. They are manifested in an increase in average annual temperatures, abrupt daily temperature changes, heat waves, heavy rainfall, storm winds in the city. The specifics of the city's geographical location, historical development, and trends in modern development exacerbate the consequences of climate change. The biodiversity of the socio-ecosystem of Lviv is concentrated in large objects of green infrastructure, as well as squares, street landscaping, cemeteries, and flower beds. The total area of green spaces is rather large and consists of about 26% of the city's area. However, there is the highest share of built-up areas among regional cities of Ukraine (67%), a small area of water bodies, and a high density of permanent population (4.2 thousand people/km2) worsen the state of the city's biotic component and increase its vulnerability to climate change. The consequences are manifested in the suppression of the vital activity of living organisms, behavioral changes, reduced resilience, the degradation and disappearance of habitats and lead to a decrease in biodiversity. Gusty winds and heavy rains damage, break, and uproot trees. There is flooding of low-lying areas, water erosion in green areas with rugged terrain and significant steepness of slopes (LRP "Znesinnia", parks Vysoky Zamok, Citadel, Zalizna Voda, Pohulyanka, etc.). Soil washout on slopes exposes the root system of trees and reduces their resistance to hurricane winds. Unprofessional care during pruning and crown formation increases the threat of natural disasters to trees. Single, old trees are the most vulnerable. The biodiversity of large green areas is less threatened and more resistant to climate change. The increase in average annual temperatures has led to phenological shifts in flowering plants. These changes are incompatible with the cycles of pollinating insects, which threatens the extinction of both plants and pollinators. However, the increase in winter temperatures causes the expansion of the range of certain species of pests and plant pathogens, which poses a significant threat to the biodiversity of Lviv. Warmer winters contribute to better survival of some species of birds and bats. Their behavioral algorithm has changed. Winter accumulations of some previously migratory bird species have been recorded in Lviv: mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), black-headed gull (Chroicocephalus ridibundus), etc. Some species of bats, including the common noctule (Nyctalus noctula) and the party-coloured bat (Vespertilio murinus), have begun to form hibernation clusters in city buildings. Rising temperatures and other effects of climate change are significantly affecting some European bird species, such as the crested tit (Lophophanes cristatus), the garden warbler (Sylvia borin) and the common chiffchaff (Phylloscopus collybita), which consists in changing their nesting periods, reducing the number of chicks and even changes in their overall body size. The increase in environmental temperature leads to overheating and death of clutches and chicks of some open-nesting bird species: terns (Sterna spp.) and plovers (Charadrius spp.) Poor air quality in Lviv city, in particular significant air dustiness and pollution, large-area heat islands in summer suppress and reduce the resilience of green spaces. Frequent cases of intentional burning of dry leaves or grass in the spring-autumn period in conditions of elevated temperatures make the burning uncontrolled and often lead to the burning of peatlands located on the western and northwestern outskirts of the city (Levandivka and Ryasne districts). The increase in average air temperatures contributes to the spread and rapid development of numerous invasive species of animals and plants. The listed factors increase the threat of biodiversity depletion and reduce its resistance to climate change. Environmental protection and organizational measures are proposed in compliance with the principles of a sustainable landscape. Natural systems that are able to exist independently in urban environments are usually characterized by a relatively rich biotic diversity of living organisms. Optimization of the age and species composition of green zones, the creation of multi-tiered plantings, planting of native species of fruit trees and shrubs, the arrangement of areas with local species of meadow forbs, and professional care will improve the ability of living organisms in the city to adapt to global climate change. Key words: green zone of the city, biotic diversity, socio-ecosystem of Lviv, nature-based solutions, climate change, adaptation measures.

Recent experience from Hurricane Sandy and high-temperature episodes has clearly demonstrated that the health of New Yorkers can be compromised by extreme coastal storms and heat events. Health impacts that can result from exposure to extreme weather events include direct loss of life, increases in respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, and compromised mental health. Other related health stressors—such as air pollution, pollen, and vector-borne, water-borne, and food-borne diseases—can also be influenced by weather and climate. Figure 5.1 illustrates the complex pathways linking extreme weather events to adverse health outcomes in New York City. New York City and the surrounding metropolitan region face potential health risks related to two principal climate hazards: (1) increasing temperatures and heat waves, and (2) coastal storms and flooding. The health impacts of these hazards depend in turn on myriad pathways, the most important of which are illustrated in the figure. Figure 5.1 Pathways linking climate hazards to health impacts in New York City. Although New York City is one of the best-prepared and most climate-resilient cities in the world, there remain significant potential vulnerabilities related to climate variability and change. As part of the NPCC2 process, a team of local climate and health specialists was mobilized to assess current vulnerabilities and to identify strategies that could enhance the resilience of New York City to adverse health impacts from climate events. The goal was to highlight some of the important climate-related health challenges that New York City is currently facing or may face in the future due to climate variability and change, based on emerging scientific understanding. As indicated in Figure 5.1, health vulnerabilities can be magnified when critical infrastructure is compromised. Critical infrastructure is a highly complex, heterogeneous, and interdependent mix of facilities, systems, and functions that are vulnerable to a wide variety of threats, including extreme weather events. For example, delivery of electricity to households depends on a multi-faceted electrical grid system that is susceptible to blackouts that can occur during heat waves. These, in turn, can expose people to greater risk of contact with exposed wires or to greater heat stress due to failure of air conditioning. Understanding and predicting the impacts that extreme weather events may have on health in New York City require careful analysis of these interactions. Two recent plans to enhance climate resiliency in New York City have been released. A Stronger, More Resilient New York (City of New York, 2013) was developed in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy by a task force of representatives from City agencies and consultants. This plan was informed by a detailed analysis of the impacts of Hurricane Sandy on infrastructure and the built environment and by the NPCC’s updated 2013 climate projections for the New York metropolitan region. It includes more than 250 initiatives and actionable recommendations addressing 14 domains of the built environment and infrastructure including the healthcare system and several other domains relevant to protecting public health. In addition, the 2014 New York City Hazard Mitigation Plan (HMP) (City of New York, 2014), developed by the NYC Office of Emergency Management in collaboration with the Department of City Planning, updated the 2009 HMP and assesses risks from multiple hazards that threaten New York City. These include but are not limited to several climate-related hazards such as coastal storms and heat waves, and it lays out comprehensive strategies and plans to address these hazards. Many of the measures recommended by A Stronger, More Resilient New York and the HMP have already been implemented, are in progress, or are planned (City of New York, 2013; 2014). This chapter does not include a detailed review of these plans, which would be beyond the expertise and charge of the contributors. Nonetheless, the recommendations in this chapter do broadly support the plans laid out in A Stronger, More Resilient New York and the 2014 HMP, and these are referenced at several points where they are especially relevant. Here we focus on summarizing and synthesizing the emerging scientific knowledge on climate-related health hazards, knowledge that can inform ongoing preparedness planning. Key terms related to climate variability and change as they are applied in the health sector are defined in Box 5.1. This is followed by sections describing health risks, vulnerabilities, and resilience strategies for coastal storms and extreme heat events. We then briefly discuss the interactions of climate change with air pollution, pollen, vector-borne diseases, and water- and food-borne diseases. We conclude with recommendations for research and resiliency planning. Box 5.1 Definitions of key cross-cutting terms in the health context Adaptation Initiatives and measures to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems against actual or expected climate change effects. Various types of adaptation exist, such as anticipatory and reactive, private and public, and autonomous and planned. For health, physiological adaptation is also relevant.

China, with its fragile environment and ecosystems, is vulnerable to climate change. Continuous changes in climatic conditions have altered precipitation patterns in most regions of China. Droughts become more frequent and severe in the Xi River basin in South China. It is expected that rapid urbanization and climate change will continue to aggravate water stress in this region. There is an urgent need to develop sustainable water management strategies in face of growing water demand and changing water availability. Projection of future climate change impacts on drought conditions has thus become imperative to support improved decision-making in sustainable water management. In this study, we assessed the risk of extreme droughts under future climate projections in the Xi River basin. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was applied to simulate the hydrological processes of the basin under a multitude of future climate scenarios from CMIP5. Based on the precipitation and runoff series obtained from the VIC model, a comprehensive analysis with respect to the major characteristics of meteorological and hydrological droughts had been carried out. This study is of practical and theoretical importance to both policymakers and scholars. First, this study may be a readily available reference work for policymakers when taking consideration of building drought mitigation plans into future water management practices. Second, the findings in this study may provide some valuable insights into the inherent connection between climatic and hydrological changes under a changing climate. Recognition of the connection and interrelation may contribute to the improvement of climatic and hydrological models in practices.

A review of the present status of the global warming science is presented in this paper. The term global warming is now popularly used to refer to the recent reported increase in the mean surface temperature of the earth; this increase being attributed to increasing human activity and in particular to the increased concentration of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) in the atmosphere. Since the mid to late 1980s there has been an intense and often emotional debate on this topic. The various climate change reports (1996, 2001) prepared by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), have provided the scientific framework that ultimately led to the Kyoto protocol on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (particularly carbon dioxide) due to the burning of fossil fuels. Numerous peer-reviewed studies reported in recent literature have attempted to verify several of the projections on climate change that have been detailed by the IPCC reports. The global warming debate as presented by the media usually focuses on the increasing mean temperature of the earth, associated extreme weather events and future climate projections of increasing frequency of extreme weather events worldwide. In reality, the climate change issue is considerably more complex than an increase in the earth's mean temperature and in extreme weather events. Several recent studies have questioned many of the projections of climate change made by the IPCC reports and at present there is an emerging dissenting view of the global warming science which is at odds with the IPCC view of the cause and consequence of global warming. Our review suggests that the dissenting view offered by the skeptics or opponents of global warming appears substantially more credible than the supporting view put forth by the proponents of global warming. Further, the projections of future climate change over the next fifty to one hundred years is based on insufficiently verified climate models and are therefore not considered reliable at this point in time.

Climate change has been occurring at a rapid rate and is being exacerbated by anthropogenic activities that increase global temperatures and atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases such as CO2. This greatly impacts ecosystems worldwide, resulting in more frequent and intense extreme weather events such as heat waves and drought. Understanding how ecosystems respond to elevated CO2 is critical for predicting the impacts of climate change on ecosystem processes, such as their ability to sequester carbon. Temperate ecosystems, in particular, are important in mitigating climate change, holding around 20% of the global plant biomass and approximately 10% of the global terrestrial carbon (Bonan, 2008). However, the capacity of these ecosystems to continue sequestering additional carbon dioxide in the future is uncertain when predicted using current terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs). To address this, improved mechanistic representations of ecosystem states and processes under changing climatic conditions are crucial, as well as the initialisation of the models using real-world observations. In this regard, ecosystem-scale experiments, such as Free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments, are extremely useful and powerful tools for improving model predictions and have frequently been used for model-data synthesis and ecosystem analysis (Walker et al, 2015).  In this study, we examined the responses of mature temperate forests to rising atmospheric CO2 and changing climatic conditions using the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2), which is a cohort-based terrestrial biosphere model (TBM). We parameterised the model with data collected from the Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, Free-air CO2 Enrichment (BIFoR FACE) experiment site. As the first study using a TBM at BIFoR, this study analysed the model’s capacity to simulate ecosystem responses to elevated CO2 (+150 ppm above ambient) and extreme weather events such as the European drought of 2022 (Gharun et al, 2024). We ran two simulations and compared model outputs against field measurements of key eco-physiological measurements such as maximum rate of carboxylation, soil moisture, and Net Primary Production (NPP). This study demonstrates the capability and the limitations of the TBM to simulate the responses of a mature temperate forest to elevated CO2 conditions under changing and extreme climatic conditions.  

The purpose of this study is to analyze current global and regional climate changes, as well as a statistical assessment of the factors that cause climate change, on the one hand, and an assessment of the impact of climate parameters on the economy, agriculture and demographic processes using the example of the Yaroslavl region, on the other hand. The study was conducted on the example of the Yaroslavl region and covers the period from 1922 to the present. First of all, the article analyzes the regulatory documents on ecology and climate change. The insufficient attention of federal and local authorities to solving the above problems, the lack of regional strategies to prevent climate change and reduce its negative consequences, which leads to the increased socio-economic risks, is noted. In order to identify factors causing climate change, a correlation and regression analysis was performed. Regression models of the dependence of crop yields on the average annual air temperature and the average annual precipitation were constructed. The statistical base of the study was compiled by the data of the Federal State Statistics Service and the territorial body of the Federal State Statistics Service for the Yaroslavl Region, as well as GISMETEO data. Processing of the research results was carried out in Microsoft Excel and SPSS.During the study, it was found that in the Yaroslavl region there is an increase in average annual and average monthly air temperatures, as well as a slight increase in precipitation, which mainly occurs due to an increase in rainfall in spring and early summer.The anthropogenic factors that cause climate change, namely the burning of fossil fuels, an increase in industrial production, an increase in the number of vehicles, as well as a change in land use and deforestation, are identified and statistically substantiated.As a result of the study, it was found that changes in climatic parameters have an impact on the economy, agriculture and demographic processes, namely: – climate change has a positive effect on agricultural production. According to studies, an increase in average air temperature is a positive factor for the agricultural sector of the Yaroslavl region, as crop yields will increase with increasing air temperature. These trends need to be considered when choosing certain varieties of crops and selecting fertilizers. Increasing the level of management and the transition to more modern technologies will have a greater effect. The efficiency and productivity of agriculture, as well as the food security of the region, will depend on these decisions; – it was found that hydro meteorological factors have a negligible effect on the growth rate of gross regional product and food production; – a statistical study showed that in the Yaroslavl region the effects of climate change on demographic processes and human health are currently insignificant.The findings can be used to develop mechanisms for adaptation to climate change and can serve as a basis for further research in the field of studying the impact of climate change on socio-economic and demographic processes in the Yaroslavl region.

The Canadian Federation of Earth Sciences (CFES) has issued this statement to summarize the science, effects, and implications of climate change. We highlight the role of Earth scientists in documenting and mitigating climate change, and in managing and adapting to its consequences in Canada. CFES is the coordinated voice of Canada’s Earth Sciences community with 14 member organizations representing some 15,000 geoscientists. Our members are drawn from academia, industry, education, and government. The mission of CFES is to ensure decision makers and the public understand the contributions of Earth Science to Canadian society and the economy. Climate change has become a national and global priority for all levels of government. The geological record shows us that the global climate has changed throughout Earth’s history, but the current rates of change are almost unprecedented. Over the last 70 years, levels of common greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere have steadily increased. Carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration is now 418 parts per million — its highest of the last three million years. The chemical (isotopic) composition of carbon in the atmosphere indicates the increase in GHGs is due to burning fossil fuels. GHGs absorb energy emitted from Earth’s surface and re-radiate it back, warming the lower levels of the atmosphere. Climatic adjustments that have recently occurred are, in practical terms, irreversible, but further change can be mitigated by lowering emissions of GHGs. Climate change is amplified by three important Earth system processes and effects. First, as the climate warms evaporation increases, raising atmospheric concentrations of water vapour, itself a GHG — and adding to warming. Second, loss of ice cover from the polar ice sheets and glaciers exposes larger areas of land and open water — leading to greater absorption of heat from the sun. Third, thawing of near-surface permafrost releases additional GHGs (primarily CO2 and methane) during decay of organic matter previously preserved frozen in the ground. Some impacts of climate change are incremental and steadily occurring, such as melting of glaciers and ice sheets, with consequent sea level rise. Others are intermittent, such as extreme weather events, like hurricanes — but are becoming more frequent. Summer water shortages are increasingly common in western Canada as mountain snowpacks melt earlier and summer river flows decline. In northern Canada, warming and thawing of near-surface permafrost has led to deterioration of infrastructure and increased costs for buildings that now require chilled foundations. Other consequences of unchecked climate change include increased coastal erosion, increases in the number and size of wildfires, and reduction in winter road access to isolated northern communities. Reductions in net GHG emissions are urgently required to mitigate the many effects of further climate change. Industrial and public works development projects must now assess the effects of climate change in their planning, design, and management. Cities, municipalities, and rural communities need to plan new residential development carefully to avoid enhanced risk of flooding, coastal erosion, or wildfire. Earth Science knowledge and expertise is integral to exploration and development of new metals and Earth materials required for a carbon-neutral future, and in the capture and storage of CO2 within the Earth. Earth Science is also central to society’s adaptation to new climatic regimes and reduction of risks. This includes anticipation, assessment, and management of extreme events, development of new standards and guidelines for geotechnical and engineering practice, and revision to regulations that consider climate change. Geoscientists also have an important role in the education of students and the public on the reasons for necessary action. Canada is uniquely positioned with its strong global geoscientific leadership, its vast landmass, and its northern terrain to effectively leverage research activities around climate change. Geoscience tools and geoscientists’ skills will be integral to Canada’s preparation for climate change.

It is a perilous time to be a farmer. Across the world, 2015 broke records for unseasonal, unprecedented, and unexpected weather. The combination of El Nino and climate change produced conditions with devastating effects for the agriculture sector around the globe. This article examines the impacts of unseasonal weather on farmers around the world, in losses to yield quality and quantity but also in economic, physical and psychological effects for farmers coping with the “new normal” in weather. It considers regional differences in farmers’ susceptibility to unseasonal weather, and presents the implications of the lack of resiliency of the major crop producers for the future of food security, and by extension, political stability. Finally, it looks at how the international community is addressing this situation, concluding with practical and achievable means for farmers and cooperatives to start to build resiliency to climate change today.

Climate change is one of the most important challenges of our time. It is likely to bring devastating impacts on human life and settlements. Climate change refers to changes in average climatic conditions of the earth due to the increase in average temperatures of the atmosphere (Figure 1). Although natural processes like solar activity and volcanic eruptions can cause changes in climatic conditions it is accepted that current climate change is caused by anthropogenic processes (Deri and Alam, 2008; IPCC, 2007a). There is a consensus that increased burning of fossil fuels and destruction of natural ecosystems, which were intensified after the industrial revolution (Figure 2), are major drivers of ongoing global warming and climate change (Costello et al., 2009).

The increase in average air temperature and multiple extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and droughts, pose significant health risks to humans. This scoping review aims to examine the current state of the existing literature concerning the potential relationship between substance abuse and climate change, along with the aspects it encompasses. The review followed PRISMA guidelines for methodological rigor, aiming to identify studies on drug abuse. Searches were conducted across the primary databases using specific search strings. Quality assessment involved evaluating the research question's clarity, search strategy transparency, consistency in applying the inclusion/exclusion criteria, and reliability of data extraction. Most studies were conducted in the USA. They included observational and retrospective quantitative studies, as well as qualitative and prospective observational ones. Research examined the correlation between extreme weather and some substance abuse. All studies analyzed the adverse effects of climate change, especially heatwaves, on both physiological and pathological levels. The scoping review notes the scarcity of studies about the correlation between substance abuse and climate change, and emphasizes the threats faced by individuals with substance abuse and mental health disorders due to climate change.