Forecast carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel consumption and environmental changes: Case study of Iran

Abstract

Introduction: Due to the huge resources of fossil fuels, Iran has a comparative advantage in the consumption of fossil fuels, and the consumption of these fuels may lead to environmental pollution. According to international organizations, carbon dioxide emissions in Iran have been increasing, so research in this area is necessary. This study for the first time predicts carbon dioxide emissions from coal, oil and natural gas consumption in Iran for the period 1982-1920 using the long-term memory method. According to the results of this study, it is predicted that in 2039, the amount of carbon dioxide emissions from coal is 4.8378 (MMtonnes CO2), carbon dioxide emissions from natural gas are 2,594 (MMtonnes CO2) and carbon dioxide emissions from consumption Crude oil reaches 95/353 (MMtonnes CO2). Natural gas emissions will emit more than other fossil fuels. Carbon dioxide emissions from all three fossil fuels increase. Emissions of carbon dioxide from gaseous fossil fuels will reach 169,701 kilotons in 2039, carbon emissions from liquefied fuels will reach 787,698 kilotons and solid fossil fuels will reach 3605 kilotons in 2039. Liquid carbon dioxide emissions will be higher than other fuels. With GIS method, it was shown that water evaporation will increase in 2030 in Iran and the Middle East. Rainfall in Iran and the Middle East will decrease in 2030. This research will help policymakers to adopt more effective policies to improve the environment. consumption through radio and television and in schools and informing people about the protection of fresh water resources, appropriate steps can be taken to waste fresh water. Government investment in freshwater conservation projects is another solution that can be anticipated.