Fish or not fish—fisheries participation and harvest diversification under economic and ecological change

Abstract

Fish harvesters respond to economic, regulatory, and environmental changes within complex and often highly uncertain decision-making processes. Analyzing and quantifying human decisions can improve our understanding and sustainable management of marine systems. Wild fish harvesters face high income volatility linked to natural variability in fish abundance, changing ocean environments, and world market dynamics. Past research has shown that owning additional permits reduces risk but at considerable cost, leaving such adaptation strategies unattainable for many harvesters. This study conducted a survey with Gulf of Alaska commercial salmon permit holders applying a discrete choice experiment to investigate the propensity of harvesters to switch target species within a given permit and to better understand participation under rapid environmental and economic change, increasingly outside historical ranges. Availability of target species, price, and historical harvest were found to be relatively more important than environmental changes affecting operations and income, even though these factors were of concern to the long-term viability of their fishing businesses. The resulting behavioral model allows fisheries managers to anticipate declines in participation relevant for managing marine resources under rapid change. It also improves understanding of fisheries participation and harvester perception of climate impacts, relevant for policy makers developing climate resilient fisheries and supporting adaptation across fishing communities. The results and approach are generalizable to other resource-dependent sectors adapting to change outside historic ranges.