Abstract
Fire risk will increase in the upcoming years due to climate change. In this context, GIS analysis for fire risk mapping is an important tool to identify high risk areas and allocate resources. In the present study, we aimed to create a fire risk estimation model that incorporates recent land cover changes, along with other important risk factors. As a study area, we selected Dadia-Lefkimi-Soufli National Forest Park and the surrounding area since it is one of the most important protected areas in Greece. The area selected for the case study is a typical Mediterranean landscape. As a result, the outcome model is generic and can be applied to other areas. In order to incorporate land cover changes in our model, we used a support vector machine (SVM) algorithm to classify a satellite image captured in September 2021 and an image of the same period two years ago to obtain comparable results. Next, two fire risk maps were created with a combination of land cover and six other factors, using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) on a GIS platform. The results of our model revealed noticeable clusters of extreme high risk areas, while the overall fire risk in the National Park Forest of Dadia-Lefkimi-Soufli was classified as high. The wildfires of 1st October 2020 and 9th July 2021 confirmed our model and contributed to quantification of their impact on fire risk due to land cover change.
Highlights
The frequency of forest fires is rapidly increasing in southern Europe, posing major challenges for Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, and France [1]
After an exhaustive review of the bibliography, we proposed seven factors to be used as criteria in analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to estimate fire risk: the land cover (LC), the elevation, the aspect, the slope, the Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), and the distance from roads (DfR) and settlements (DfS)
(c) Longitu of Natura 2000 area (GR1110005) that coincides with the National Park Forest of Dadia-Lefkimi-Soufli, of Natura 2000 area (GR1110005) that coincides with the National Park Forest of including the protected zones A1 and A2
Summary
The frequency of forest fires is rapidly increasing in southern Europe, posing major challenges for Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, and France [1]. Approximately 93% of fires in Northern Europe are caused by humans, either intentionally or unintentionally [13], and the location of populated places and roadways is critical in identifying areas at high risk of fire. Multiple levels of spatial and nonspatial data and information related to fire risk, such as meteorological data, land cover, vegetation features, and topography, in the form of historical information is combined and evaluated to create detailed fire risk maps [24–26]. In order to make a valid comparison, we chose to include in the fire risk model factors that remain relatively constant for long periods of time This creates a baseline fire risk map of our study area
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