Forest Fire Risk Mapping Using GIS Based Analytical Hierarchy Process Approach

Abstract

Turkiye is located in a region sensitive to forest fires due to the Mediterranean climate, vegetation and topography of the south and west coasts. Every year, forest fires for various reasons cause thousands of hectares of forest area to be burned. Fires damage the ecosystem as well as have economic consequences. While the Mediterranean, Aegean and Marmara coasts, where the Mediterranean climate and fire-sensitive tree species are dominant, are at primary risk against forest fires, the forests located on the Black Sea coasts where the Black Sea climate is dominant are less risky in terms of fire. For an effective fight against forest fires, it is crucial to identify zones with fire risk based on various parameters such as forest structures (tree species, crown closure, stand age), topographic features (slope, aspect), climate, and proximity to certain points (such as roads, settlements, agricultural areas). Fire risk data will shed light on the measures that can be taken against fire. In this study, GIS (Geographic Information Systems) based Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method, one of the well know MCDA (Multi-criteria Decision Making Analysis) methods, was used to develop the fire risk map of Mersin Forestry Regional Directorate (FRD) within the Mediterranean region of Turkiye. Then, the accuracy of the fire risk map was evaluated by taking into account the previous fires in the regional directorate. As a result, it was found that 13.87% of the study area was classified as very high, 25.87% high, 24.68% medium, 22.44% low and 13.14% very low risk areas. The results showed that tree species are the most effective risk factor in forest fires, and followed by stand age factor. The accuracy of the fire risk map was evaluated by using the location information of a total of 562 fires in Mersin FRD between 2003-2022 that damaged forest areas. In order to determine the accuracy of the fire risk map, ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve method was used in ArcGIS environment. As a result, the AUC (Area Under Curve) value was found to be approximately 74%, and these values showed that the fire risk map developed for Mersin FRD was moderately reliable. With this study, it has been demonstrated that it is possible to produce reliable fire risk maps in a short time using the GIS-based AHP method.