Finding spatial and temporal features of delay propagation via multi-layer networks

Abstract

Air traffic system is a typical complex network with dynamic delay propagation between airports. However, difficulties in measuring delay propagation strength and constructing rational networks make investigating the features of delay propagation based on real data from the perspective of complex network is rarely seen. In this paper, using two largest real-world flights dataset of China and the USA over a period of two months in 2018 (from Jul. to Aug.), we construct the delay propagation networks among airports by calculating causality relationship between delay time series of airports. We identify the multilayer structures of networks by k-core decomposition and reveal that a core layer with a few of tightly connected airports dominants delay propagation in the whole systems. Through the analysis on motifs, bidirectional edges are found to be the culprit to expand the scope of delay propagation from airport pairs to local structures. At the system level, we analyze the properties of communities and found that airports geographically close to each other are likely to be classified into a delay propagation community, while the delay propagation between communities is mainly affected by the air traffic flow between them. Moreover, through the comparisons of structures for the delay propagation networks on different days, we reveal the temporal dependence of delay propagation that the more serious the delay propagation in one day, the more similar it will be to that in the next day. Finally, the usefulness of features found is assessed through applying them to predict the delay propagation in the future.