Flight Delay Propagation Impact on Strategic Air Traffic Flow Management

Abstract

Despite recent decreases in air traffic, congestion is still at higher levels than it was several years ago. Because of this congestion and expected increases in traffic, strategic planning for daily operations in the air traffic system has taken on an increasingly important role. Weather typically has a strong influence in developing such plans, as it leads to degraded airport and airspace capacity, which in turn causes delays. However, many reported delays are induced by these initial effects. Thus, it is essential to understand the scope and impact of propagation of flight delays in a strategic setting. In this paper, delay propagation is examined over several years in spatial and temporal terms. Two models, each incorporating different levels of fidelity and flexibility, are applied in an effort to examine this phenomenon. The first model tracks individual aircraft as they operate several flights and explicitly separates the new delay from the propagated delay. The second model operates at a higher level by relating earlier and later delays at several airports. Results identifying the various impacts of delay propagation are reported for several airports and scenarios, and recommendations are made for incorporating these models and their output into strategic planning efforts.