Abstract
Since 2019, a large number of people worldwide have been infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. Among those infected, a limited number develop severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which generally has an acute onset. The treatment of patients with severe COVID-19 is challenging. To optimize disease prognosis and effectively utilize medical resources, proactive measures must be adopted for patients at risk of developing severe COVID-19. We analyzed the data of COVID-19 patients from seven medical institutions in Tokyo and used mathematical modeling of patient blood test results to quantify and compare the predictive ability of multiple prognostic indicators for the development of severe COVID-19. A machine learning logistic regression model was used to analyze the blood test results of 300 patients. Due to the limited data set, the size of the training group was constantly adjusted to ensure that the results of machine learning were effective (e.g., recognition rate of disease severity > 80%). Lymphocyte count, hemoglobin, and ferritin levels were the best prognostic indicators of severe COVID-19. The mathematical model developed in this study enables prediction and classification of COVID-19 severity.
Highlights
Since 2019, a large number of people worldwide have been infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
The symptoms of COVID-19 vary across p atients[5], and typical symptoms include fever, cough, and fatigue, while some individuals may lose their sense of taste and smell
In a trial organized by the World Health Organization[10], remdesivir as well as hydroxychloroquine, lopinavir, and interferon regimens did not affect the prognosis of hospitalized patients
Summary
Since 2019, a large number of people worldwide have been infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. Among those infected, a limited number develop severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which generally has an acute onset. In December 2019, a large number of viral pneumonia cases were noted in Wuhan, China This pneumonia was found to be caused by a new type of coronavirus—severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARSCoV-2)[1,2], and the disease was named coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)[3]. The severity of symptoms varies across individuals, and COVID-19 affects both the upper and lower respiratory tracts. There is a need to reduce the number of severe COVID-19 cases that require such interventions
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