Abstract
This work aims to analyze future trends through influence factors on the areas of Legal Reserve (RL). The modeling of the data was using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) based on Multiple Linear Regression analysis (RML) using a time series 2003-20023 between variables generating explanatory factors of future influences the area RL. The results of the coefficient of determination (R²) showed 60%, demonstrating the existence of a relationship between the independent variables X1 to X25 with the variables A_RL response and analysis of variance with F = 76.519 with significance value of 0.000, indicating that ANOVA rejects the event there is no regression. Thus each factor of influence or explanatory acted in association with the variables and produced a RML equation with the response variable A_RL = 3.277 to 0.207 (p-0.023) use of traditional land - 0.346 (p-0.000) income / credit + 0 , 43 (p-0.000) occupation time + 2.007 (p-0.000) Hand effective work + 0.109 education (p-0.230 ** not significant) - 0.727 (p-0.000) area - 0.207 (p-0.024) agroecological practices + 0.343 (p-0.000) ownership. We conclude that most of the factors was significant indicating the need for improving the socioeconomic nature of factors, mainly the education, income / credit and titration which resulted in the adoption of more appropriate environmental conservation public policies combined with agricultural production more sustainable.
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