Abstract
1) The paper examines the relationship between electricity demand and climate/non-climate related factors using statistical regression analysis. 2) It focuses on the environmental, demographic, policy (energy pricing) and technological factors as the main factors affecting the consumption pattern in Jordan. 3) The paper also presents the variations occurred in the electricity demand over the period 1994-2008. The variations that are observed during the period of study are: Shifting of the peak load occurrence from evening to morning period, Modification in the annual daily load curve especially in winter season, Variation in relationship between space temperature and demand especially in winter, and dramatic increase in electric generation after year 2003. The shift in peak load from evening to morning period is mainly due to technological factor as a result of wide use of the air conditions in houses, services and government offices for cooling in summer instead of ordinary air fans. The variations in consumption pattern between 2000 and 2007 are mainly associated with economic, social and demographic factors. The high demand at lower space temperature is governed by introducing new appliances for heating in winter as a result of low electricity pricing comparing with gasoline price. The dramatic increase in electric generation after 2003 is probably due to demographic factors as a result of high growth of population after the Gulf war II. 4) The correlation between the daily maximum loads in morning and evening periods with the differential temperature (ΔT) above 20?C threshold in summer and below 15?C threshold in winter, shows pronounced changes in 2007 compared with year 2000. The regression tests show that a decrease of 1?C below 15?C threshold in winter 1) increases the morning demand by only 2 MW/?C in 2000 and 16.7 MW/?C in 2007, 2) decreases the evening peak by ?2.6 MW/1?C in 2000 and increases the evening peak by 22.9 MW/1?C in 2007. Results show that the demographic, technological, environmental and national energy pricing factors play a vital rule in consumption pattern in Jordan. Moreover, the paper reveals that planners and decision makers should be careful when applying new tariff in the developing countries such as Jordan.
Highlights
The electricity energy consumption pattern in any country is a multivariate, consisted a mix between climate and other important economic factors including energy prices, income, Gross National Product (GNP), import and export values and energy demand index [1,2,3]
October 8 August 23 August 31 July 23 July 31 July 30 August 27 August 8 August 31 July 29 July 2 September shows that starting from year 2000, the occurrence of the annual peak load shifted from evening to morning period (11 am-14 pm) except during years 2003 and 2006 where the evening peak was slightly higher than morning peak
The paper highlights the modification of electricity demand in Jordan during the last decade and the variations of the load between summer and winter seasons and the day to day load variations
Summary
The electricity energy consumption pattern in any country is a multivariate, consisted a mix between climate and other important economic factors including energy prices, income, Gross National Product (GNP), import and export values and energy demand index [1,2,3]. Shuvra et al [4] summarized the factors that directly influence the change of electrical energy demand in any country by economic, demographic and technological factors, factors related to policy change and environmental factors. The demographic factor implies that population is an important factor that might influence electricity demand; with growing population, the total energy requirement in all sectors is expected to rise.
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