Covid-19 lockdown: impacts on GB electricity demand and CO<sub>2</sub> emissions

Abstract

In early 2020 a wide range of social and economic restrictions were implemented in most countries in response to the global coronavirus pandemic (Covid-19). This paper uses national electricity generation data to examine the extent to which overall British electricity consumption deviated from ‘normal’ consumption patterns during the UK’s spring lockdown period, and how the combination of consumption reduction and variation in carbon intensity affected greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) associated with electricity consumption. The paper shows that ongoing trends in the reduction of electricity demand and generation carbon intensity mean that lower year-on-year demand and lower emissions would have been expected even in the absence of Covid-19. Controlling for this, the paper estimates lockdown-driven below-trend electricity reductions of up to 20% in the morning peak period, 11% in the daytime and 9% in the evening peak period in April, declining to 6%, 4% and 4%, respectively, by June. These correspond to marked reductions in morning (06:00–08:00 hours) and daytime demand during all restriction periods studied, but relatively smaller reductions in evening demand, and some evidence of a relative increase on Friday and Saturday evenings. Practice relevanceThe observed changes in demand are likely to be repeated in future national or local restriction periods and provide insights of value for grid and local distribution network management. This is especially true if such restrictions are required in spring 2021, as looks increasingly likely, but are also relevant to the winter 2020–21 heating season, which is likely to exacerbate the demand for electric heating, although gas remains the dominant heating fuel source in homes. However, unlike fossil fuel-based transport, the changes observed do not translate to direct emissions reductions due to the mixture of fuels used to generate electricity in Britain. Electricity generation emissions were either close to or above the trend during this period, and the effect is especially noticeable for the traditionally carbon-intensive evening peak period.