Abstract
This research considered changes in monthly electricity generation and demand in Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic. Observed network electricity demand and generation type for the January–June 2020 period were compared to forecast values (using a triple exponential smoothing method) based on trends established from 2016 to 2019. Regional level electricity demand data showed little variation from expected trends for domestic energy users, but lower than expected business and industrial network demand, particularly in the 50–2000 kW cohort. Electricity demand was most likely to deviate from existing trends in May 2020, which is in-line with the voluntary lockdown activities. These results are consistent with observed patterns from other international studies into the impact of COVID-19 on electricity demand. Generation was found to be reduced in May and June of 2020, without significant impacts to the generation makeup, largely due to Japan’s positioning within a broader energy transition context. These findings validate previous studies and add to the broader discussions on drivers and the rationale for electricity demand behaviors between user scales. Previous studies examined the electricity demand reductions of full and partial lockdowns. This analysis adds to this discourse by documenting the impacts of a voluntary lockdown.
Highlights
The nuclear generation results were out of the predicted range for much of the assessment period. The instability of these results is likely related to a larger political discourse rather than a direct consequence of the COVID-19 disruption [27,28]
No deviation from the observed seasonal pattern was noticeable during the COVID-19 period
No evidence could be found to suggest significant changes in generation make-up were triggered by the COVID-19 disruption
Summary
By April 2020, it was estimated that over half of the global population had experienced a full or partial lockdown, with closures of non-essential businesses, schools, and universities impacting most of the remainder [1] These changes have impacted sociotechnical systems globally, including electricity demand and supply. Minor increases in domestic electricity demand have not compensated for the wider commercial and industrial reductions observed [12] Impacts have been both direct net demand reduction and indirect reduction through lateral movement as the costs of alternative fuels (such as natural gas) reduce, compounded by delivery of a pipeline of renewable generation capacity. This has resulted in improvements in the emissions intensity of energy sectors over lockdown periods. These trends are forecast to continue with little recovery for coal and with oil demand falling further, along with minor reductions in gas demand [1]
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