Abstract
This paper analyses the factors that influence and determine the local population growth and decrease in rural areas of Latvia based on population changes at micro level (1x1 km square grid areas) in 2000–2018. Quantitative analysis of the spatial structure of the population was carried out in three reference territories. Results suggest that the proportion of territories with population increase in Latvian municipalities (2000–2018) has a very strong and statistically significant correlation to population changes (2000–2018) in the respective municipality. This may lead to the conclusion that the influence of other factors on the location of the territories in the spatial structure of the municipality where population growth is observed is not statistically significant.
Highlights
Population shrinkage is a significant problem for Latvia
According to the results obtained during the research, no statistically significant set of parameters was identified in relation to population changes at the micro level (1x1 km square grid areas)
Aizkraukle and Skriveri municipalities were selected as areas with average population decline and Kekava, Salaspils and Stopini municipalities were selected as areas with population increase
Summary
The main cause of population decrease in Latvia is migration. Migration and its influencing factors are an important area of research in population geography (Bērziņš et al 2018). Migration is influenced by the income gap between economically developed and less developed regions (Harris & Todaro 1970; Greenwood & Hunt 2003; Boyle et al 1998), agricultural production efficiency and development (Camaioni et al 2019; Clark et al 1997; Chomy et al 2011; Brodzinski 2007), sustainable forestry and rural area development (Yilmaz et al 2010; Smallbone 2009) and economic benefit for individuals (Sjaastad 1962). By researching the key factors affecting rural development in Turkey, 12 key factors affecting village development were identified: geographical location, village size, land productivity, land use, active population, poplar production areas, proximity to a river, housing comfort, drinking water characteristics, fertility of the land, cooperation and investment in social infrastructure (Oddershede et al 2007). The process of studying rural development must use both objective and subjective data, including the views of local leaders (Straka & Tuzova 2016)
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