Exogenous factors and the crisis bargaining process

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We examine whether bargaining behavior alters the initially expected effects of exogenous factors, such as power balance, issues, and domestic regimes, influencing crisis outcomes. Our argument is that, instead of weakening threat credibility as assumed in the traditional advocacy for firmness, mixing coercion with accommodation optimally allows states to reach an outcome within the bargaining range shaped by exogenous factors. After establishing causal mechanisms, we test our hypotheses over the 1918−2015 period. The findings validate our expectations that intransigence exacerbates crisis stability even under favorable exogenous conditions whereas mixed bargaining mitigates the effects of unfavorable ones.