Examining the roles of visualizations in people's understanding of uncertain storm surge forecasts, interpretation of risk, and decision-making

Abstract

Maps and other forms of geovisualizations play a central yet complex role in communicating weather hazard risks and threats to the public. Through designing storm surge risk communication prototypes and testing these visualizations in focus groups with residents of coastal communities in Georgia and South Carolina, this study investigates how different aspects of geospatial visualization influence individuals' understanding and relatability of storm surge information and how different elements of geospatial risk visualization influence people's intent to take protective actions. The focus group discussions revealed common themes and unique perspectives in the interpretation of hurricane storm surge flooding forecasts and illustrated the complexity of communicating risk and uncertainty to diverse populations. This study found a sequential pattern of visual information processing, beginning with understanding the content and its perceived accuracy and uncertainty, followed by personalizing the information and deciding on protective action. Showing storm surge forecast maps at multiple spatial scales was valuable, combined with realistic visualizations in the form of images or 3D animations of flooded buildings. Maps with recognizable places and labels helped study participants locate themselves and assess storm surge risks, although residents of urban, barrier island, and rural coastal communities interpreted the information in their local and personal context. Additional research is needed to understand how people interact with different types of storm surge forecast information and how to improve visual risk communication in ways that enhance people's understanding and responses to storm surge risk in the context of their local environment and prior experiences.