Recent Progress in Storm Surge Forecasting

Abstract

This report briefly summarizes recent progress in storm surge forecasts, one of topics discussed during the fourth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Process (IWTCLP 4) held during 5-8 December, 2017. In the workshop, improvement of storm surge forecasting system was mainly discussed with relevance to the problem of estimating the impacts of tropical cyclone landfall. To deal with storm surges, accurate TC condition (predictions and forecasts) as input, reasonable storm surge predictions (with forecasting systems), and effective advisories / warnings (i.e. useful information products) are necessary. Therefore, we need to improve storm surge related matters systematically: input, prediction system, and effective information. This report tries to highlight recent progress in the field of storm surges in relation to three key points: improvement in storm surge forecasting models / system, TC conditions as input for storm surge predictions, and informative products for end users.