Examining spatial disparities in electric vehicle charging station placements using machine learning

Abstract

• A framework for predicting equitable future EVCS placements is developed for Orange County, CA. • Santa Ana, Anaheim, Costa Mesa and La Habra experience the highest inequities in terms of EVCS placements. • Low-income areas with low car ownership and median age of population between 25-45 years, experience least EVCS access. • Random Forests achieve the highest predictive accuracy of 94.9% for EVCS density classes at 3 km resolution. • 11.04% of predicted EVCS placements lie within a high inequity zone. • 11.2% of the high inequity zones will require low to medium density of EVCS placements. Electric vehicles (EV) are an emerging mode of transportation that has the potential to reshape the transportation sector by significantly reducing carbon emissions thereby promoting a cleaner environment and pushing the boundaries of climate progress. Nevertheless, there remain significant hurdles to the widespread adoption of electric vehicles in the United States ranging from the high cost of EVs to the inequitable placement of EV charging stations (EVCS). A deeper understanding of the underlying complex interactions of social, economic, and demographic factors which may lead to such emerging disparities in EVCS placements is, therefore, necessary to mitigate accessibility issues and improve EV usage among people of all ages and abilities. In this study, we develop a machine learning framework to examine spatial disparities in EVCS placements by using a predictive approach. We first identify the essential socioeconomic factors that may contribute to spatial disparities in EVCS access. Second, using these factors along with ground truth data from existing EVCS placements we predict future ECVS density at multiple spatial scales using machine learning algorithms and compare their predictive accuracy to identify the most optimal spatial resolution for our predictions. Finally, we compare the most accurately predicted EVCS placement density with a spatial inequity indicator to quantify how equitably these placements would be for Orange County, California. Our method achieved the highest predictive accuracy (94.9%) of EVCS placement density at a spatial resolution of 3 km using Random Forests. Our results indicate that a total of 11.04% of predicted EVCS placements in Orange County will lie within a high spatial inequity zone – indicating populations with the lowest accessibility may require the greater investments in EVCS placements. 69.52% of the study area experience moderate accessibility issues and the remaining 19.11% face least accessibility issues w.r.t EV charging stations. Within least accessible areas, 7.8% of the area will require low density of predicted EVCS placements, 3.4% will require a medium density of predicted EVCS placements, and 0.55% will require high density of EVCS placements. The moderately accessible areas would require the highest placements of EVCS but mostly with low density placements covering 54.42% of the area. The findings from this study highlight a generalizable framework to quantify inequities in EVCS placements that will enable policymakers to identify underserved communities and facilitate targeted infrastructure investments for widespread EV usage and adoption for all. The findings from this study highlight a generalizable framework to quantify inequities in EVCS placements that will enable policymakers to identify underserved communities and facilitate targeted infrastructure investments for widespread EV usage and adoption for all.