Abstract
The prediction of solar energetic particle (SEP) events may help to improve the mitigation of adverse effects on humans and technology in space. UMASEP (University of Málaga Solar particle Event Predictor) is an empirical model scheme that predicts SEP events. This scheme is based on a dual-model approach. The first model predicts well-connected events by using an improved lag-correlation algorithm for analyzing soft X-ray (SXR) and differential proton fluxes to estimate empirically the Sun–Earth magnetic connectivity. The second model predicts poorly connected events by analyzing the evolution of differential proton fluxes. This study presents the evaluation of UMASEP-10 version 2, a tool based on the aforementioned scheme for predicting all >10 MeV SEP events, including those without associated flare. The evaluation of this tool is presented in terms of the probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR) and average warning time (AWT). The best performance was achieved for the solar cycle 24 (i.e., 2008–2019), obtaining a POD of 91.1% (41/45), a FAR of 12.8% (6/47) and an AWT of 2 h 46 min. These results show that UMASEP-10 version 2 obtains a high POD and low FAR mainly because it is able to detect true Sun–Earth magnetic connections.
Highlights
Eruptive events in the solar corona are associated with the acceleration of protons and ions
This section compares these forecasting results with those of other tools as follows: Sections 3.1 and 3.2 present the >10 MeV solar energetic particle (SEP) events during the solar cycles 22–24 and the corresponding performance forecasting results of UMASEP-10 version 2; Section 3.3 presents a comparison of the UMASEP-10 version 1 and 2 for each solar cycle; Section 3.4 presents a comparison of UMASEP-10 version 2 with other empirical SEP event prediction models for the periods reported by the corresponding SEP
The UMASEP-10 version 2 tool described in Section 2 was optimized for maximizing the critical success index (CSI) of the solar cycles 23 and 24 by using all >10 MeV SEP events reported by Bain et al [2]
Summary
Eruptive events in the solar corona are associated with the acceleration of protons and ions These particles propagate along the interplanetary magnetic field lines, and may reach the near-Earth environment [1]. One of the most important objectives in space weather is the prediction of SEP events; it is very important for space agencies not to manage a large false alarm ratio [2,6]. For this reason, solar radiation event forecasts should be accurate enough to take important decisions in satellite and space mission operations
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