Evaluation of solar PV-based microgrids viability utilizing single and multi-criteria decision analysis

Abstract

Feasibility analysis is crucial for solar projects to minimize risk and ensure goal achievement. Essential factors include the PV system's location, elevation, land slope, energy yield, soil texture, mean annual cloud frequency map, and distance from urban areas. This study examines the performance of a 3 MW PV system across five remote Egyptian regions characterized by desert weather conditions. The influence of available weather data sources and different yield estimation methods on the feasibility of the PV system is treated as a Single-Criteria Decision Making (SCDM) scheme. Meteorological data from Meteonorm 8.1, PVGIS, and NASA-SSE satellite data are utilized as input data for the designed PVsyst and ANSYS-based energy yield estimation models and for empirical formulas. Significant variations in estimated energy yield are observed, depending on the weather data source. The study also underscores the importance of diligently evaluating and comparing the accuracy and reliability of different weather data sources and estimation methods for simulating PV-based microgrid system performance. The yield estimation-based SCDM indicates that the New Valley PV system consistently outperformed the other systems. However, a Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) indicates that the Red Sea performs well in technical criteria evaluation, while alternative Aswan City excels in practical and feasibility criteria assessment. The study employs the MCDM approach to provide a more detailed evaluation. Specifically, the technical criteria focus on energy yield, system efficiency, and reliability.In contrast, a decision-maker prioritizing long-term sustainability might lean towards a system that excels in technical criteria, even if it is economically less attractive in the short term. Conversely, a decision-maker constrained by budget limitations might opt for a system that, while not the most technically efficient, offers the most cost-effective solution. This dual-criteria approach reveals that while one region may excel in technical performance, another is more financially viable. The choice between these two regions hinges on the specific priorities of the decision-maker.