Evaluation of Socio-Economic Drought Risk over Bundelkhand Region of India using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geo-Spatial Techniques

Abstract

The Bundelkhand region situated in the central part of India has a long history of droughts. Although recurrent drought events in this region are controlled by the climatic variables, its unique soil, and physiography, the adversities associated with this devastating hazard largely depend upon the coping capacity of the local communities. Hence, estimating the socio-economic vulnerability of drought is necessary for adopting specific mitigation strategies to reduce the adverse impacts of drought. In this study, we explored the potentiality of geographical information system (GIS)-based analytic hierarchy process (AHP) for assessing drought risk in the Bundelkhand region from socio-economic perspective. The 10-day composite Satellite Pour l'Observation de la Terre Vegetation (SPOT-VGT) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (1998–2013) dataset was used for computing the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), a satellite-derived agricultural drought index for monitoring spatio-temporal dynamics of drought. NDVI maps of each year were assessed for mapping drought frequency. On the other hand, the socio-economic vulnerability of drought was estimated using five relevant parameters, viz. population density, marginalized population, cultivators, agricultural labours, and literacy rate, with employing AHP in a GIS platform. The pairwise comparison method was used for estimating the weights of each criterion. Most of the districts under hot semi-arid agro-climatic zone located in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) part of Bundelkhand are highly vulnerable to socio-economic drought, mainly due to high density of population and extensive agricultural activities. Out of the total area under highly vulnerable zone (27.8%), about 20% fall under semi-arid agro-ecological zone covering a large part of UP. The Madhya Pradesh (MP) part of Bundelkhand, located under the hot sub-humid agro-ecological zone, is comparatively less vulnerable to socio-economic drought. A substantial portion of this area is covered by forest, and the percentage of the total population involved in agricultural activities is relatively less. The study reveals that near about half of the total area is under threat to high (20.1%) and very high (29.1%) risk of socio-economic drought. Most of this drought risk zone falls under UP part of Bundelkhand. It is a matter of deep concern as this extensive fertile plain produces various cash crops, as well as cereals; therefore, high drought risk over this region needs a suitable strategy to mitigate the adversities of the hazard.