Evaluation of network expansion decisions for resilient interdependent critical infrastructures with different topologies

Abstract

Resilient interdependent critical infrastructures (CIs) can better withstand cascading failures in disruptive events. This study proposes network expansion as a resilience improvement strategy for interdependent CIs and evaluates the influence of topology in interdependent network design for resilience optimization under disruption uncertainty. A resilience score consisting of network complexity and unmet demand metrics is introduced to quantify the resilience of expanded networks. Five synthetic interdependent network instances with random and hub-and-spoke (i.e., cluster) topologies are generated to represent CIs with heterogeneous node functions. Different network expansion opportunities are considered and critical node disruption scenarios are used to evaluate the impact of uncertain disruptions. We apply a two-stage stochastic multi-objective resilience optimization model to determine strategic investment decisions using the expected total cost and expected resilience score as competing objectives. Compromise solutions of expanded network designs are identified from Pareto optimal solutions and they are characterized according to their graph properties. The results show that expanded networks have improved resilience and the extent of improvement is affected by the network topology and type of disruption. Under critical node disruptions, a random network is more resilient than a hub-and-spoke structure due to its better connectivity. Characteristics of highly connected interdependent networks are high average node degree, high clustering coefficient, and low average shortest path length. Resilience improvement is more limited in expanded networks with a hub-and-spoke structure due to the negative impact of hub failures.