Abstract
The Pan-Third Pole (PTP) region, which encompasses the Eurasian highlands and their surroundings, has experienced unprecedented, accelerated warming during the past decades. This study evaluates the performance of historical simulation runs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in capturing spatial patterns and temporal variations observed over the PTP region for mean and extreme temperatures. In addition, projected changes in temperatures under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5‐8.5) are also reported. Four indices were used to characterize changes in temperature extremes: the annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature (TXx), the annual minimum value of daily minimum temperature (TNn), and indices for the percentage of warm days (TX90p) and warm nights (TN90p). Results indicate that most CMIP6 models generally capture the characteristics of the observed mean and extreme temperatures over the PTP region, but there still are slight cold biases in the Tibetan Plateau. Future changes of mean and extreme temperatures demonstrate that a strong increase will occur for the entire PTP region during the twenty-first century under all four SSP scenarios. Between 2015 and 2099, ensemble area-averaged annual mean temperatures are projected to increase by 1.24 °C/100 year, 3.28 °C/100 year, 5.57 °C/100 year, and 7.40 °C/100 year for the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. For TXx and TNn, the most intense warming is projected in Central Asia. The greatest number of projected TX90p and TN90p will occur in the Southeast Asia and Tibetan Plateau, respectively.
Highlights
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, a fact that has drawn overwhelming attention from the public, governments, and academic communities in recent decades (Gou et al 2021)
Motivated by the above issues, this study aims to (1) evaluate the performance of the CMIP6 models in simulating near-surface mean and extreme temperatures over the Pan-Third Pole (PTP) region during the historical period and (2) assess future climate change in the PTP region based on CMIP6 model simulations for the twenty-first century
A comprehensive evaluation of CMIP6 ensembles over the Pan-Third Pole region was performed to assess their performance in simulating spatial patterns and temporal variability of mean temperatures and four indices of temperature extremes, which constitute the most important parameters for modeling climate-related changes to the terrestrial water cycle
Summary
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, a fact that has drawn overwhelming attention from the public, governments, and academic communities in recent decades (Gou et al 2021). The warming in the PTP region is causing Earth system changes characterized by intensive interactions among the processes of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, and biosphere, and is resulting in environmental threats such as glacier retreat, ice collapse, glacial lake expansion, and frequent glacier lake outburst flood (Miao et al 2021; Yang et al 2014; Yao et al 2019). These changes may have impacts on the regional and global hydrologic cycle, thereby hindering socioeconomic development in countries along the routes of the Belt and Road Initiative. A deeper understanding of climate changes in the PTP region can inform science-based adaptation strategies to reduce climate risks
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