Evaluation of farmland production potential in key agricultural production areas on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under multi-scenario simulation

Abstract

Predicting changes in future land use and farmland production potential (FPP) within the context of shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) is crucial for devising sustainable land use strategies that balance agricultural production and ecological conservation. Therefore, the Huangshui Basin (HSB) in the northeast Qinghai–Tibet Plateau is taken as the study area, and a LUCC–Plus-FPP (LPF) coupling framework based on the SSP–RCP scenarios is proposed to evaluate future land use patterns and FPP changes. On the basis of the predictions of land use changes from 2020 to 2070, the trade-offs in grain production resulting from bivariate changes in farmland and FPP under future scenarios are analyzed. The results indicate that the model has a high simulation accuracy for land use types, with an overall accuracy of 0.98, a kappa coefficient of 0.97, and a figure of merit value of 0.21. Under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, built-up land increases significantly, by approximately 45.89 %. Farmland and grassland conversions contribute the most to increased built-up land. Farmland area consistently decreases by approximately 5 % across all scenarios. The protection of farmland in the study area is difficult to undertake and thus requires much attention. Moreover, under the SSP126 scenario, the FPP of most districts is greater than that in 2020, and the average FPP of the HSB from 2030 to 2070 is greater than that in 2020. In the SSP585 scenario, by 2070, the average FPP of all districts decreases to different degrees compared with that in 2020. Furthermore, the compensated farmland quantities and average FPPs under all the scenarios are significantly lower than the amount of occupied farmland. The results provide a theoretical foundation and data support for farmland protection decision-making and layout optimization in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau.