Evaluating emission reduction potential and co-benefits of CO2 and air pollutants from mobile sources: A case study in Shanghai, China

Abstract

Mobile sources have significantly contributed to local carbon dioxide (CO2) and air pollutants (APs) emissions, but researches on their overall co-control remain limited. This study, aiming at Shanghai's overall mobile sources, conducted the prediction of emission reduction potential, co-benefits assessment and peak CO2 emissions analysis. Results revealed a reduction of 55.9% in CO2 emissions and 64.1% in APs equivalents by 2050 under the strictest scenario. Without additional mitigation, CO2 total emissions in 2050 would approach 120 Mt. Motor vehicles contribute the most to CO2 and CO emissions, while ships serve as the primary source of other APs. Motor vehicles' CO2 emissions could peak in 2033 (42.57∼47.47 Mt), with the overall mobile sources achieving peak emissions two years later (56.21∼63.55 Mt). VOCs, SO2, NOx, and CO2 exhibit relatively high synergy, and the emission reduction degree of NOx would be higher than that of CO2, while other pollutants are the opposite.