Abstract

Abstract Drawing on the two main theories of regional integration, neofunctionalism and intergovernmentalism, this study identifies four important variables that are likely to shape the future of the EU's foreign and security policy: existence of spillover pressure; entrepreneurial role played by either supranational or national actors; convergence of national interests; and presence of support from transnational actors and the general public. As Europe emerges as an economic bloc in its mm right, the need for its mm foreign and security policy for protecting or enhancing its economic interests has been acutely felt among Europeans. Supranational actors of the EU such as the European Commission and the European Parliament are anxious to have Europe's foreign and security policy enter the EU's ambit, feeding into the existing spillover pressure. Further, the Kosovo crisis has produced a sea change in European—especially British—attitudes. The British shift is of particular significance, because all along it was the UK's opposition that posed the biggest impediment in the development of common European foreign policy. If the obstacle hitherto considered most intractable is to some extent removed, however, other challenges might arise. If it entails increases in defense budget, the most likely internal source of resistance to the development of the Common Foreign and Security Policy would be the taxpayers. On the other hand, the restructuring of Europe's foreign policy cooperation under the heading of the strengthened CFSP is also likely to encounter mixed responses from the US. While the US has genuinely supported a more unified Europe, what it wants is not an assertive Europe but one just cohesive enough to be able to share the burden of European security.

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