Estimation of Electricity Supply and Demand under Dual Carbon Goals: A Chance-constrained Linear Programming Model

Abstract

Implementing the green and low-carbon development strategy has become a global consensus with the increased severity of global environmental problems. In 2020, Chinese President Xi Jinping put forward China’s carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals (i.e., dual carbon goals), which is a guideline for the development of Chinese power systems. Thus, a supply and demand estimation system that includes dual carbon indicators and considers the long-term supply capacity is needed. To address these gaps, this study put forward an estimation model and provided the solutions. First, a supply and demand estimation indicator system is established to meet the dual carbon goals. Second, with minimizing cost being the main objective and several constraints, a chance-constrained linear programming model is used to estimate the supply and demand of electricity in 2030, 2040, and 2050. Finally, with model relaxation, we obtained the estimation results with Matlab-Cplex, which verified the efficiency and validity of the proposed model.