Abstract
Abstract. A drought severity climatology for the Carpathian region has been produced using the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (Sc-PDSI) for the period 1961–2010. Using the Sc-PDSI and the assumptions of the Palmer drought model (PDM) the precipitation required for drought termination (when Sc-PDSI reaches −0.5) and amelioration (when Sc-PDSI reaches −2.0) are computed for periods of 1, 3, and 6 months. We discuss the reduction of the uncertainty in the determination of the beginning and ending of drought conditions, and provide a quantitative measure of the probability that any drought could be ameliorated or terminated. We present how the spatial variability of the amount of water needed for drought recovery and the climatological probability of receiving that amount of water is determined by the local conditions against the general climate characteristics of a small area such as the Carpathian region. Regionally, the Pannonian Basin, the Transylvanian Plateau and the external Carpathian foothills and plains in the southern and eastern part of the region require the highest quantity of precipitation to recover from a drought while having the lowest climatological probabilities for such amounts of rainfall. High precipitation amounts over the northern and northwest part of the region result in higher soil moisture supplies and higher climatological probabilities to end a given drought event. Moreover, the succession and/or predominance of particular types of general atmospheric circulation patterns produce a seasonal cycle and inter-annual variability of precipitation that is quantitatively reflected in the excess of precipitation that is above normal required for drought recovery. Overall, the results of this study provide an overview on the chances of recovery from a drought period with moderate or severe drought and present information useful in decision making in water and drought management.
Highlights
Drought is one of the most far-reaching natural and socioeconomic disasters (WMO/UNCCD/FAO/UNW-DPC, 2013)
Examples are the requirement for the set-up of River Basin Management Plans, including Drought Management Plans under the European Water Framework Directive (WFD), the High-Level Meeting on National Drought Policies (HMNDP, http://www.hmndp.org), or the Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP, http://www.droughtmanagement. info) established by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Global Water Partnership (GWP) in 2013
This paper provides a quantitative measure of the probability that any drought could be ameliorated or terminated over some defined period of time using the Palmer drought model (PDM) (Karl et al, 1987) with its assumptions and limitations
Summary
Drought is one of the most far-reaching natural and socioeconomic disasters (WMO/UNCCD/FAO/UNW-DPC, 2013). As opposed to the PDSI, the Sc-PDSI is more spatially comparable across regions using fixed parameters related to the soil/surface characteristics at each location It can be used (following the assumptions of the Palmer drought model) to assess the chances of drought recovery. As a result – enhanced by precipitation shortage (Adams et al, 2009) – major decreasing in net primary production (Ciais et al, 2005) and high forest mortality occurred This shows how drought stress – through increased evapotranspiration – is induced, to a large degree, by the availability of soil moisture. Various aspects of the hydrological model, on which the PDSI is based on, are directly used in the calculation procedure of the precipitation required to recover from drought, which confers homogeneity and offers means of validation of the obtained results. A spatial and temporal analysis of these results is presented, including information on the deviation (%) of the required precipitation from the normal annual rainfall cycle and an analysis of the months of the year with the highest/lowest probability for terminating a drought at different levels of severity
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