Timescale differences between SC-PDSI and SPEI for drought monitoring in China

Abstract

The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) has been widely used to monitor drought. Its characteristics are more suitable for measuring droughts of longer timescales, and this fact has not received much attention. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) can better reflect the climatic water balance, owing to its combination of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. In this study, we selected monthly average air temperature and precipitation data from 589 meteorological stations of China's National Meteorological Information Center, to compare the effects of applying a self-calibrating PDSI (SC-PDSI) and SPEI to monitor drought events in the station regions, with a special focus on differences of event timescale. The results show the following. 1) Comparative analysis using SC-PDSI and SPEI for drought years and characters of three dry periods from 1961 to 2011 in the Beijing region showed that durations of SC-PDSI-based dry spells were longer than those of 3-month and 6-month SPEIs, but equal to those of 12-month or longer timescale SPEIs. 2) For monitoring evolution of the fall 2009 to spring 2010 Southwest China drought and spring 2000 Huang-Huai drought, 3-month SPEI could better monitor the initiation, aggravation, alleviation and relief of drought in the two regions, whereas the SC-PDSI was insensitive to drought recovery because of its long-term memory of previous climate conditions. 3) Analysis of the relationship between SC-PDSI for different regions and SPEI for different timescales showed that correlation of the two indexes changed with region, and SC-PDSI was maximally correlated with SPEI of 9–19 months in China. Therefore, SC-PDSI is only suitable for monitoring mid- and long-term droughts, owing to the strong lagged autocorrelation such as 0.4786 for 12-month lagged ones in Beijing, whereas SPEI is suitable for both short- and long-term drought-monitoring and should have greater application prospects in China.