Estimating the impact of climate change on wind and solar energy in Brazil using a South American regional climate model

Abstract

In the coming decades, higher temperatures, significantly reduced rainfall and changing wind speeds are projected for various semiarid regions due to Global Warming. Hydroelectric production in Brazil's São Francisco basin has already declined as a result of regional climate change, however less is known about the impacts on other renewable resources. The objective of this study is to estimate the impact of climate change on Brazil's solar and wind energy resources. Data from three different downscaled global climate models is used to estimate the percentage changes in average solar radiation and wind speed by the 2030s and 2080s under high emissions scenarios in comparison to baseline data from the end of the 20th century. Results show that due to climate change, solar energy potential could increase slightly at solar power plant locations in the NE and Southeast regions. Wind energy potential is projected to increase substantially across most of Brazil and at some wind farm locations wind power generation could increase by more than 40%. Despite some inconsistencies between the long-term projections from the 3 different climate models, the results of this research are important in the context of regional climate change and renewable energy resource planning.