Abstract
To ensure that transport infrastructure provides acceptable levels of service with respect to extreme events, the resilience of the infrastructure needs to be estimated and targets for it need to be set. In this paper, the methodology proposed in the Foresee EU research project is presented. The methodology allows managers to measure, and set targets for, the resilience of transport systems in all situations. It requires clear definition of the transport system and how the service provided and the resilience are to be measured. The methodology allows consideration of the fact that transport infrastructure managers need to estimate resilience with various degrees of accuracy depending on the specific problem to be addressed, the time frame at disposition and the expertise available. These various levels of accuracy are covered by proposing the use of (a) simulations, (b) indicators whose values are directly related to increases in expected restoration intervention costs and reductions in service, and (c) the percentage of fulfilment of indicators. Once resilience has been estimated, the methodology provides guidance on how to set resilience targets with or without cost–benefit analysis. For demonstration, the explanation of the steps of the guideline is supported by their use for a simple transport system.
Highlights
The functioning of society depends on the transportation of goods and persons
As losses in service due to disruptive events can have significant societal consequences, the transport infrastructure should be managed in such a way that the consequences of extreme events are minimised
It is necessary for transport infrastructure managers to, (a) on one hand, have a clear idea of the service that the infrastructure is providing and an understanding of its resilience, if it is affected by natural hazards, and, (b) on the other hand, to understand how the resilience of a network can be modified to counteract the loss of service following a hazard and to provide specified levels of service during and following the occurrence of extreme events – that is, to set resilience targets
Summary
The functioning of society depends on the transportation of goods and persons. The infrastructure required to enable transportation is built to ensure that this can happen in specified ways – that is, built to provide specified levels of service. A solid and consistent methodology does not exist yet to measure (i.e. to assess the importance, effect or value of (something)) the resilience of transport infrastructure (Transport infrastructure is considered to be all infrastructure for enabling travel, e.g. road infrastructure and rail infrastructure or combinations of both.) with respect to a defined service or set of services and set targets of resilience. The service to be provided by transport infrastructure is, in general, the safe and sustainable mobility of persons and goods, more exact definitions are required to estimate resilience rigorously and set targets. The guideline is to be used by managers to establish how to quantify both the service provided by and the resilience of multimodal transport infrastructure, when the desire is to have estimates that can be used for the determination of the optimal resilience-enhancing interventions to be executed and set resilience targets
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