Epilogue: growing risks of Sino-Indian border conflict

Abstract

ABSTRACT India–China standoff has lasted for more than three years since China intruded at multiple points along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh in May 2020. Although both states continue to assert that they do not want war/conflict, the risk of vertical and horizontal escalation has grown significantly, both along the LAC and in the maritime domain. Several rounds of talks at the diplomatic and military levels have failed to amicably resolve the standoff, further compounded by Modi’s and Xi’s unwillingness to seriously address the issue in leader-level talks. Moreover, the Modi government’s refusal to publicly admit that China now forcibly occupies territory previously held by India before 2020 only suggests to Beijing that further Chinese incursions will be similarly publicly denied by India. Beijing and New Delhi’s LAC actions are indicative of an intensifying security dilemma, as evidenced by their competitive military buildups and prioritization of gaining and holding territory over meaningful political talks. Their deployment of new technologies, such as precision-guided missiles and combat UAVs, is not being complemented by dialogue to understand how their use may generate a significant escalatory response leading to a broader war or conflict.