When does China go to war? Explaining China’s Covid19-driven perceived vulnerability in 2020

Abstract

ABSTRACT This paper argues that China intruded at multiple points along the LAC in May 2020 to showcase strength amidst the COVID-19 pandemic which is believed to have originated in Wuhan. COVID-19 led to large scale deaths and a global economic meltdown with Beijing severely criticized for the emergence of COVID-19 pandemic, poor regulation of the animal markets, suppressing information and failure to prevent the spread of COVID-19 beyond China’s borders. This caused immense damage to China’s international reputation and status, its economy, and relations with other countries. Border incursions by China in May 2020 were a guise to highlight China’s strength lest India consider China in a weakened state and gain leverage over Beijing in the bilateral relationship. Through border incursions, Beijing wanted to mask its vulnerability created by COVID-19 and showcase its willingness to not compromise over its security interests. China is both powerful and insecure about its status. This combination makes it undertake a particularly pessimistic security-centric outlook and more likely to engage in risky behavior. Like in the previous instances, the use of military force against India in the year 2020 stemmed from a sense of vulnerability caused by loss of status due to Covid19.