Epidemic situation of malaria and change trend in Belt and Road countries

Abstract

Objective: To understand the epidemic situation of malaria and its change trend in the Belt and Road countries. Methods: The 145 countries with which China has signed cooperation documents on the Belt and Road Initiative were selected for this study, and their malaria incidence data were collected from the Global Burden of Disease 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) was used to describe the epidemic situation of malaria in 2019. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of the ASR was calculated to assess the incidence trend of malaria from 2013 to 2019. Results: Among the 145 countries, 74 (51.03%) countries had malaria epidemics, mainly in Africa (60.81%, 45/74) and Asia (22.97%, 17/74). The countries with malaria incidence of ≥10 000 per 100 000 in 2019 were mainly distributed in Africa (96.15%, 25/26). From 2013 to 2019, the incidence rates of malaria showed decreasing trends in 32 countries (43.24%), and the incidence rates of malaria in 23 countries (31.08%) showed no significant change, while the incidence rates of malaria in 19 countries (25.68%) showed increasing trends. The obvious increasing trends were observed in Cape Verde (EAPC=151.46, 95%CI: 47.15-329.71), South Africa (EAPC=98.61, 95%CI: 32.11-198.58) and Namibia (EAPC=78.03, 95%CI: 54.30-105.42). Conclusion: About half of the Belt and Road countries had malaria epidemics in 2019, in which 1/4 had increased incidence of malaria. China should continue to strengthen the prevention and control of malaria, especially imported malaria, to maintain the achievements of malaria elimination.