Epidemic situation and trend of dengue fever in Belt and Road countries

Abstract

Objective: To analyze epidemic situation of dengue fever in 2019 and the incidence trends from 2013 to 2019 in the Belt and Road countries. Methods: We used age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) which was from Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 to describe the epidemic situation of dengue fever in 2019. The estimated annual percentage change(EAPC) of the ASR was calculated to assess dengue fever incidence trends from 2013 to 2019. Results: The 2019 GBD dengue fever incidence records showed that in 145 Belt and Road countries, 93 (64.14%) countries had dengue fever epidemics. In 2019, there were 11 countries with the incidence >3 000.00 per 100 000, including 9 countries in Oceania; 16 countries with the incidence of 1 000.00 per 100 000-2 999.99 per 100 000, including 10 countries in Asia. The incidence rates in most countries in Africa (58.14%,25/43), North America (72.73%,8/11) and South America (66.67%,4/6) ranged from 500.00 per 100 000 to 999.99 per 100 000. The incidence rates of dengue fever in 90.00% (9/10) of countries in Oceania showed increasing trend, and the increasing trend in Fiji was most obvious (EAPC=18.22,95%CI:12.91-23.77), and the incidence rates of dengue fever in 18.18% (4/22) of countries in Asia showed increasing trend, the increasing trend in the Philippines was most obvious (EAPC=3.09,95%CI:1.74-4.45), and the incidence rates of dengue fever in 4.65% (2/43) of countries in Africa showed increasing trend, and the increasing trend in Seychelles was most obvious (EAPC=18.20,95%CI:7.82-29.58). The incidence rates of dengue fever showed no increasing trend in countries in South America and North America. Conclusions: In 2019, more than 60% of the Belt and Road countries had dengue fever epidemics. The incidences of dengue fever were high and showed increasing trends in most Oceanian countries, but the dengue fever epidemics in the countries in Asia, Africa and Americas were relatively mild.