Ensuring the safety of geotechnical objects based on forecasting the parameters of the water regime of rivers using SARIMA models

Abstract

Every year there are many floods in the world, which have a significant impact on the sustainable social and economic development of the population. At the same time, geotechnical objects located within river catchment basins experience the greatest damage due to floods. To ensure the safety of geotechnical objects, including during high water and flood or low water, it is necessary to predict the extreme values of the parameters of the water regime of rivers. The purpose of this project is to determine the SARIMA model, which makes it possible to most reliably predict the values of the water regime parameters of the Belaya River of the Republic of Bashkortostan. The monthly values of the water flow of the Belaya River in the alignment of the city of Ufa for the period from 1950 to 2018 (828 values) were used as initial data. Based on the comparative analysis of SARIMA models according to the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the SARIMA model (1,0,1) (2,1,0)12 was determined. Also, the forecast values correspond to satisfactory accuracy, which is caused by high fluctuations in the values of the parameters of the water regime during high water or floods. The results of the forecast make it possible to assess the risks for geotechnical objects located within the catchment area of the river, and to scientifically approach the choice of preventive measures.