Abstract

Simple SummaryClimate change is one of the most significant drivers of habitat loss and species extinction, particularly montane endemic species such as Juniper trees, which are restricted to unique habitats. Therefore, assessing the impact of climate change on the extinction risk of species is a promising tool or guide for species conservation planning. The loss in species habitat due to global warming indicates the level of extinction or endangerment. Predictions of suitable habitats are outputs from assessment analysis. This will help conservationists discover new populations of endemic species and help raise the awareness of local people to save and rescue these endangered species.Climate change is an important driver of biodiversity loss and extinction of endemic montane species. In China, three endemic Juniperus spp. (Juniperus pingii var. pingii, J. tibetica, and J. komarovii) are threatened and subjected to the risk of extinction. This study aimed to predict the potential distribution of these three Juniperus species under climate change and dispersal scenarios, to identify critical drivers explaining their potential distributions, to assess the extinction risk by estimating the loss percentage in their area of occupancy (AOO), and to identify priority areas for their conservation in China. We used ensemble modeling to evaluate the impact of climate change and project AOO. Our results revealed that the projected AOOs followed a similar trend in the three Juniperus species, which predicted an entire loss of their suitable habitats under both climate and dispersal scenarios. Temperature annual range and isothermality were the most critical key variables explaining the potential distribution of these three Juniperus species; they contribute by 16–56.1% and 20.4–38.3%, respectively. Accounting for the use of different thresholds provides a balanced approach for species distribution models’ applications in conservation assessment when the goal is to assess potential climatic suitability in new geographical areas. Therefore, south Sichuan and north Yunnan could be considered important priority conservation areas for in situ conservation and search for unknown populations of these three Juniperus species.

Highlights

  • In the last one hundred years, the average global temperature has increased by approximately 0.74 ◦ C, and the warming trend is projected to increase in the coming decades to reach 2.8–5.3 ◦ C by 2085 [1]

  • Temperature annual range (Bio7) was the most important factor predicting the potential distribution of J. pingii var. pingii (56.1% contribution)

  • Projections of the current study revealed that the studied Juniperus species would be exposed to a continuous decline in their suitable habitat areas, J. pingii var. pingii and J. tibetica, even under the moderate emission scenarios (i.e., RCP4.5)

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Summary

Introduction

In the last one hundred years, the average global temperature has increased by approximately 0.74 ◦ C, and the warming trend is projected to increase in the coming decades to reach 2.8–5.3 ◦ C by 2085 [1]. Climate change may lead to contractions in population sizes that could lead to local species extinction [3]. Drought, which is one outcome of global climate change, will affect the habitat suitability of species [4]. In this context, plants adapted to cold conditions at the top of mountains, endemics, are at the highest risk of extinction [5]. Endemic plants are restricted to a specific range in well-defined areas [6] Their conservation is necessary at the global, national, and local scales [7]. The decline in species population sizes and suitable habitats enhances extinction risk, for narrow-range endemic species [8]. Engler et al [5]

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