Abstract
We consider the problem of estimating the basic reproduction number R 0 from data on prevalence dynamics at the beginning of a disease outbreak. We derive discrete and continuous time models, some coefficients of which are to be fitted from data. We show that prevalence of the disease is sufficient to determine R 0. We apply this method to chronic wasting disease spread in Alberta determining a range of possible R 0 and their sensitivity to the probability of deer annual survival.
Highlights
The basic reproduction number [1], R0, is one of the well-known epidemiological characteristics
In the simplest case, when sex, age and social structure are not important, and the rate of a disease spread depends only on the total number of infected individuals, R0 equals to the mean number of new infections per a currently infected individual in a totally susceptible population
Mandatory head submission began in 2006 within an area of chronic wasting disease (CWD) risk that increased from 131,000 km2 in 2006 to 565,900 km2 in 2010–2012
Summary
The basic reproduction number [1], R0, is one of the well-known epidemiological characteristics. It quantifies the average number of secondary cases per infected individual in the beginning of a disease outbreak. In the simplest case, when sex, age and social structure are not important, and the rate of a disease spread depends only on the total number of infected individuals, R0 equals to the mean number of new infections per a currently infected individual in a totally susceptible population. If R0 = 4, the disease would not spread if 3 out of 4 individuals are immune; that is, at least 1 − R0−1 = 75% of individuals have to be vaccinated and develop an immune response
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