Estimating seasonal drivers in childhood infectious diseases with continuous time and discrete-time models

Abstract

Many important factors affect the spread of childhood infectious disease. To better understand the fundamental drivers of infectious disease spread, several researchers have estimated seasonal transmission coefficients in discrete-time models. In this paper, we build upon this previous work and also develop a framework for efficient estimation using continuous differential equation models. We introduce nonlinear programming formulations to efficiently estimate model parameters and seasonal transmission profiles from existing case count data for the childhood disease, measles. We compare results from discrete time and continuous time models and address several shortcomings of the discrete-time method, including removing the need for the data reporting interval to match the time between successive cases in the chain of transmission or serial interval of the disease. Using a simultaneous approach for optimization of differential equation systems, we demonstrate that seasonal transmission parameters can be effectively estimated using continuous time models instead of discrete-time models.