Empfindlichkeit typischer Schweizer Waldbestände auf den Klimawandel

Abstract

Sensitivity of typical Swiss forest stands to climate change In Switzerland, first climate-induced changes of forest ecosystems can be observed. However, it is widely unknown how and to what extent the typical (widespread) forest stands will respond to future climate change. With the data of the third National forest inventory and the forest succession model ForClim we examined the development 71 typical stands under current and future climatic conditions (A2 emission scenario) with and without management, respectively. The simulations show a weak response until the middle of the century. In contrast, an increased sensitivity towards the end of the century becomes apparent, expressed by declines of basal area at lower elevations, respectively increases at higher elevations. The responses of forest stands are depending on site-specific characteristics. For example, Norway spruce is expected to decline up to higher elevations. Our results show an increase of deciduous tree species in higher elevation zones, particularly if management is applied. The impacts of climate change on important forest ecosystems services vary along a bioclimatic elevation gradient. Thereby, current forest management shows approaches how to at least partly counteract adverse effects of climate change. However, target- and site-specific strategies are needed and, particularly with regard to lower elevations, more knowledge on the potential of tree species to adapt is required.