El cambio climático y los impactos socioeconómicos sobre la zona costera e insular colombiana

Abstract

Climate change has a global-level impact, with effects on natural and human systems, and in particular coastal zones have been recognized as area sensitive to threats of sea level rise (SLR) and coastal erosion. This exercise was carried out in order to identify the impacts of climate change at a socioeconomic level in Colombia’s coastal zone, which is composed of 12 departments with 60 municipalitiesframed within ten Coastal Environmental Units (UAC). Methodologically, 23 indicators were defined using the risk approach, that combines the exposure (14 indicators), sensitivity (6 indicators) and adaptive capacity (3 indicators), framed within food security, human habitat, andinfrastructure dimensions. To do this, official information databases were built regarding the socioeconomic elements exposed, combined with the use of the SLR and coastal erosion-affected areas report, elaborated by Invemar within the Third National Communication on Climate Change framework. With this report data, indicator matrices were built and the levels of affectation in each indicator were calculated using distribution by quintiles. The results show that towards the year 2100, about 5% of the population and 4.3% of houses will be affected by SLR, especially in the Guapi and Mosquera (Cauca) and La Tola (Nariño) municipalities in the Pacific region and Remolino, Sitio Nuevo and Pueblo Viejo (Magdalena) municipalities in the Caribbean. In addition, tourist areas could lose 13% due to coastal erosion, and 5.9% of the port infrastructure and 12% of the roads could be flooded by SLR. These results constitute an input to support territorial planning, as well asthe formulation of municipal and sectoral plans for climate change management on Colombia’s coasts.